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Just 60 days in the past when the Villa attacker stood on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as his coach berated him over missing a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was if his performances were an indicator or the source of Villa's wider issues.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

In the latest match, in contrast, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. After the England international drilled in his second to reinstate Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his jacket, spread his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to a 10th successive win and having failed to win any of their first six games, are somehow a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.

Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?

This is an exceptionally difficult proposition to address. The historical record, the traditional standing of the club, argues against it. Moreover, their performances haven't been wholly dominant this season, even as the positive results have piled up.

As per statistical analysis, twice all season has the side had an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a side who have just won ten consecutive victories, they seem strangely fragile – however right now the margins are going in their favour.

The Winning Formula

Their recent policy seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to save the day with a couple of clinical strikes. It happened against Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and it happened against the Red Devils.

His opener originated from a superb shot, curled just inside the upright from a wide position. For his second was essentially a slight scruffier version of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Is It Sustainable?

Logic says not. In the recent win, the opposition registered a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those fixtures.

A statistical correction might be the most significant challenge they must confront in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling the ball into the top corner indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Could it be an alternative path in which, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures might still find their top level.

• The main striker might resume finding the net regularly.
• The winger could transform into the performer he showed in Germany.
• The defensive duo are due to regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky backline.

Perhaps there is in that the potential for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

However, nobody expected this. Nobody thought the team would be third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, no one envisioned the midfielder as the year closed would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while looking like an essential England player.

The current run must be cherished exactly since it appears so improbable. When Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful after the match leading the celebrations, he appeared to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These spells are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.