Keir Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to parliament. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.

Significant Obstacles in the Selection Procedure

A number of figures on the party's powerful NEC have reportedly predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are anxious to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

A number of insiders also shared fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.