Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
